Rosa Del Mar

Daily Brief

Issue 10 2026-01-10

Trend/Cta Realized Outcomes: Concentration, Sector Dispersion, And Drawdown/Recovery Dynamics

  • In 2025, performance for the discussed trend portfolio was driven by a small number of persistent trends, with metals contributing about 21% of the year's performance.
  • Pursuing the single backtest-optimal parameter setting is usually wrong, and a robust 'good enough' configuration tends to outperform in practice.
  • A new world order is emerging in which globalization is giving way to geographically separated spheres of influence.