Rosa Del Mar

Daily Brief

Issue 48 2026-02-17

Crypto Vc Cycle Dynamics: Fundraising Recovery Signals And Delayed Feedback Loops

  • There are fewer large new L1 fundraising rounds than in prior cycles, with more funding attention shifting toward prediction markets, trading apps, and crypto-plus-AI concepts.
  • Ryan flags uncertainty about whether compute will commoditize (reducing the value of daily credits) or become more valuable over time (increasing their value).
  • Ryan says he has largely settled on using Gemini for research because it provides needed context with minimal prompting, and he would only switch if it materially degrades or a major new functionality appears elsewhere.

Crypto Downturn Duration Quality Bifurcation And Market Structure

  • There may be large relative-value trades before a full market reset completes, and the 9–18 month timeline may be unjustified given a constructive regulatory backdrop.
  • There is an open debate on whether big tech should own data centers or rent from contractors to reduce future depreciation risk.
  • Quantum computing capable of cracking current Bitcoin private-key cryptography is far away, with expert estimates of 2030–2035 as a minimum timeframe to reach sufficient qubit levels.