Stablecoin-Adoption As The Current Organizing Narrative
Sources: 1 • Confidence: Medium • Updated: 2026-03-18 14:30
Key takeaways
- Avi claims Circle's valuation is difficult to justify on current fundamentals, citing a forward P/E of roughly 108–119 and stating Circle's revenue is inversely correlated with yields.
- Avi expects a new AI model release within the next few months could reignite 'AI fears' and create a renewed short opportunity after an interim rebound.
- Avi states that if Bitcoin reaches around 85 and then trades back down near 79, he would likely sell even if the 90 target was not reached.
- Jonah flags Galaxy as a laggard opportunity at around $23 versus prior enthusiasm above $40, arguing the crypto and AI data-center narratives may be returning even after an earnings-driven selloff.
- Weekend access to futures via brokers has extremely poor liquidity and punitive bid-ask pricing, limiting the usefulness of that alternative to 24/7 crypto-native venues.
Sections
Stablecoin-Adoption As The Current Organizing Narrative
- Avi claims Circle's valuation is difficult to justify on current fundamentals, citing a forward P/E of roughly 108–119 and stating Circle's revenue is inversely correlated with yields.
- Circle has more than doubled from its lows, which Avi interprets as crowding into one of the few public vehicles to express the stablecoin-adoption thesis.
- Avi claims stablecoins exhibit strong aggregation effects, making incumbents with existing critical mass difficult to displace.
- Avi claims that if stablecoins scale dramatically (e.g., to trillions outstanding) then Circle could be underpriced despite high current multiples, though he still prefers other exposures.
- Avi attributes recent Ethereum strength to a new market narrative centered on stablecoin adoption, which he considers early.
- Jonah reports that Stan Druckenmiller has said stablecoins are likely to replace banking, despite previously criticizing crypto more broadly.
Risk Regime Rotation Framing Across Oil/War Headlines, Us Tech/Software, And Crypto
- Avi expects a new AI model release within the next few months could reignite 'AI fears' and create a renewed short opportunity after an interim rebound.
- If the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted, Jonah expects oil prices rising toward extreme levels would force global coordination to reopen it, limiting the duration of any sustained closure.
- Avi expects that as oil-war fears dissipate, capital will rotate back into prior winners such as large-cap tech, software, and crypto.
- Avi expects the next six to twelve weeks may offer unusually strong returns for his current positioning.
- Avi expects a rotation back into American large-cap and tech names (including Google, Robinhood, and software via IGV) as a prior phase ends.
- Avi expects a near-term upside move across financial assets, software assets, and crypto.
Explicit Bitcoin Technical Conditions As A Decision Framework
- Avi states that if Bitcoin reaches around 85 and then trades back down near 79, he would likely sell even if the 90 target was not reached.
- Avi states that a move back down to 69 would prompt him to exit because it would imply a failed Bitcoin breakout pattern.
- Jonah states that buying Bitcoin at current levels is a favorable risk-adjusted trade with a stop under 69 and upside toward about 85.
- Avi claims a failed Bitcoin breakout tends to lead to further downside and can become a good short setup.
- Avi predicts Bitcoin can rally toward roughly 90k and frames the trade as buying after a breakout with a risk stop near 69k.
- Jonah expects Bitcoin to be a surprise outperformer in the second half of the year because it has been broadly written off and sentiment is extremely poor.
Galaxy As A Crypto-Plus-Ai Data-Center Optionality Proxy With Disputed Timing
- Jonah flags Galaxy as a laggard opportunity at around $23 versus prior enthusiasm above $40, arguing the crypto and AI data-center narratives may be returning even after an earnings-driven selloff.
- Avi reports the market is skeptical Helios will be as valuable as bulls claim, while data-center analysts are described as very bullish, with timing of monetization the key uncertainty.
- Jonah characterizes Galaxy as a public-market proxy for Mike Novogratz's portfolio whose results and sentiment are highly reflexive to Bitcoin's direction.
- Avi claims investors' core bull thesis for Galaxy centers on its Helios data center being repurposed from Bitcoin mining to AI.
24/7 Crypto-Native Venues As Market-Structure Wedge
- Weekend access to futures via brokers has extremely poor liquidity and punitive bid-ask pricing, limiting the usefulness of that alternative to 24/7 crypto-native venues.
- Hyperliquid enables trading (including oil exposure) during times when traditional futures markets are closed, creating a timing/information advantage for users who can trade 24/7.
Watchlist
- The hosts prefer crypto exposures with strong narratives or cashflows (including Hyperliquid, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and possibly Solana) and de-emphasize many other tokens lacking a clear value accrual story.
- Avi expects a new AI model release within the next few months could reignite 'AI fears' and create a renewed short opportunity after an interim rebound.
- Jonah flags Galaxy as a laggard opportunity at around $23 versus prior enthusiasm above $40, arguing the crypto and AI data-center narratives may be returning even after an earnings-driven selloff.
Unknowns
- What objective data shows stablecoin adoption accelerating (total supply, settlement volume, and where that activity occurs), and how does it map to value capture for specific assets?
- How do Circle's earnings and guidance quantitatively respond to changes in short-term rates, and what portion of economics is adoption-driven vs yield-driven?
- During legacy market closures, what are the comparative spreads, depth, and executable size for weekend futures via brokers versus Hyperliquid for the same exposures (e.g., oil)?
- What is the realized token issuance rate and liquidity fragmentation trend for altcoins, and does it correlate with persistent underperformance versus major assets?
- Do the Bitcoin technical levels described (69 as invalidation; 85/79 as conditional exit) meaningfully predict subsequent returns, or are they merely narrative anchors?