Rosa Del Mar

Daily Brief

Issue 84 2026-03-25

Valuation Discipline And A Growth-Capital Bottleneck

Issue 84 Edition 2026-03-25 8 min read
General
Sources: 1 • Confidence: Medium • Updated: 2026-04-11 16:46

Key takeaways

  • Tapiero says valuations for private crypto companies are only just starting to come down now and expects further normalization if crypto prices remain at current levels for longer.
  • Tapiero says that for tokens to be investable to traditional investors, there must be clear delineation so business revenue accrues consistently either to token holders or to equity holders rather than being split in a way that leaves token investors without economics.
  • 50T Funds rebranded from 10T about a year ago, coinciding with the launch of its fifth fund, which had a first close in December and is currently holding capital to deploy.
  • Tapiero claims that stablecoin and DeFi activity have grown dramatically since early 2021, citing roughly $33T traded in stablecoins last year and DeFi revenue around $100–200M per month.
  • Tapiero claims U.S. crypto exchange volume market share rose from about 7% of global volume eighteen months ago to roughly 15% today, framing this as part of an 'Americanization of crypto.'

Sections

Valuation Discipline And A Growth-Capital Bottleneck

  • Tapiero says valuations for private crypto companies are only just starting to come down now and expects further normalization if crypto prices remain at current levels for longer.
  • Tapiero says his firm prefers paying about 5–10x revenue for growth-stage crypto businesses and views prior-cycle ~100x revenue private valuations as damaging to founders, investors, and the sector’s long-term capital base.
  • Tapiero claims the number of crypto companies meeting his growth-stage revenue threshold expanded from roughly 20–30 in 2019 to about 150 today.
  • Tapiero argues that growth-stage funding in crypto is structurally scarce, describing a roughly 98-to-2 venture-to-growth ratio.

Institutionalization Via Etfs And Tokenization As A Multi-Year Transition

  • Tapiero says that for tokens to be investable to traditional investors, there must be clear delineation so business revenue accrues consistently either to token holders or to equity holders rather than being split in a way that leaves token investors without economics.
  • Tapiero projects the digital asset ecosystem can reach about $50T by 2035, with approximately $20T Bitcoin, ~$10T for ETH and other major networks, and ~$20T for equity in the space.
  • Tapiero says the launch of spot crypto ETFs accelerated institutionalization of crypto and is driving adoption of blockchain rails by major financial institutions.
  • Tapiero predicts that over the next several years, tokenization will drive a transition in which money and value increasingly move on-chain.

Growth-Stage Crypto Private Equity Posture And Deployment Readiness

  • 50T Funds rebranded from 10T about a year ago, coinciding with the launch of its fifth fund, which had a first close in December and is currently holding capital to deploy.
  • 50T positions itself as a growth-stage private equity investor in crypto/web3, generally targeting companies with more than $50M in revenue and focusing on larger later-stage equity investments rather than seed or token positions.

Fundamentals Vs Speculative Tokens (Bifurcation) With Stablecoin/Defi Metrics

  • Tapiero claims that stablecoin and DeFi activity have grown dramatically since early 2021, citing roughly $33T traded in stablecoins last year and DeFi revenue around $100–200M per month.
  • Tapiero argues the crypto ecosystem is bifurcating such that core infrastructure and real usage (including stablecoins and applications like Polymarket) can flourish even while much of the alt-token market remains depressed.

Geographic Market-Structure Shift Toward The United States

  • Tapiero claims U.S. crypto exchange volume market share rose from about 7% of global volume eighteen months ago to roughly 15% today, framing this as part of an 'Americanization of crypto.'
  • Tapiero expects the United States could reach about 50% of global crypto trading volume within 5–10 years as crypto becomes embedded in the U.S. financial system.

Watchlist

  • Tapiero says valuations for private crypto companies are only just starting to come down now and expects further normalization if crypto prices remain at current levels for longer.
  • Tapiero relays that Kraken CEO Arjun Sethi expects to have all of his personal assets managed by an autonomous agent within 12 months, and Tapiero says his firm is investing in agentic infrastructure.

Unknowns

  • What is the size (committed capital) of 50T Fund V, and what are its target check sizes and concentration limits?
  • How should the ecosystem size estimate (~$4–5T) be computed (what is included: token market caps, equities, private valuations, debt)?
  • Do stablecoin activity and DeFi revenue metrics hold under independent measurement, and what exact definitions were used for '$33T traded in stablecoins' and 'DeFi revenue'?
  • Is the claimed expansion to ~150 crypto companies over $50M revenue accurate, and what categories of companies are included (exchanges, custody, infra, payments, mining, etc.)?
  • Are private crypto-company valuations actually resetting toward 5–10x revenue in new rounds and secondaries, and what is the dispersion by business type?

Investor overlay

Read-throughs

  • If private crypto valuations are resetting and growth capital is scarce, later stage equity deals may shift toward lower revenue multiples and more structured financing, especially for revenue scale companies.
  • If token economics must clearly accrue to token or equity to attract traditional investors, projects with ambiguous value capture may struggle to access institutional capital despite user activity growth.
  • If stablecoin and DeFi activity are growing while speculative tokens lag, operational metrics may become a primary diligence input for infrastructure and application businesses versus token price breadth.

What would confirm

  • Observable down rounds and secondary prints showing lower revenue multiples for private crypto companies, plus evidence of constrained growth stage check availability relative to demand.
  • Deal terms and disclosures that cleanly allocate revenue and cash flows to either token holders or equity holders, and institutional participation rising where that delineation is clear.
  • Independent measurements corroborating large stablecoin transfer volume and sustained DeFi revenue, alongside continued weak or bifurcated performance in non major tokens.

What would kill

  • Valuations stop declining or re inflate without improved fundamentals, or growth stage capital becomes abundant, undermining the scarcity and normalization framing.
  • Persistent structures where business value accrues to equity while tokens retain minimal economics, yet tokens still gain broad institutional uptake, contradicting the delineation condition.
  • Third party data fails to support the cited stablecoin and DeFi metrics, or on chain activity and protocol revenue meaningfully deteriorate while the bifurcation thesis is maintained.

Sources