Macro/Geopolitical Expectations And Cross-Asset Readthroughs (Speculative)
Sources: 1 • Confidence: Medium • Updated: 2026-04-11 16:58
Key takeaways
- Avi Felman says he saw a statistic claiming about 80% of Gen Z believe speculative investments will drive their financial success more than traditional investing.
- Jonah Van Berg says the G7 signaled access to roughly 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumed afterward.
- Avi Felman argues that for young people without families, living in Puerto Rico can be worth it because taxes are often the largest expense and savings can compound early in life.
- Jonah Van Berg says he expressed a view to fade the war-driven oil spike by buying beaten-down stocks and Hyperliquid rather than shorting oil futures due to negative convexity and wipeout risk when short futures.
- Jonah Van Berg claims the physical oil market is structurally long optionality because control of tanks, pipelines, and ships creates operational flexibility that can be monetized by selling into spikes.
Sections
Macro/Geopolitical Expectations And Cross-Asset Readthroughs (Speculative)
- Avi Felman says he saw a statistic claiming about 80% of Gen Z believe speculative investments will drive their financial success more than traditional investing.
- Avi Felman claims Iranian missile launches are down about 90% and uses that as evidence the conflict may end soon.
- Avi Felman claims that if the war succeeds, gold becomes less attractive because the multipolar-world thesis weakens and global investors may re-embrace US assets.
- Avi Felman expects uranium and rare earth minerals to remain highly valuable due to continued push for energy production and strategic materials demand.
- Avi Felman predicts a swift resolution of the Iran war would be bullish for Bitcoin and US equities and bearish for emerging markets due to capital flowing back to the US.
- Jonah Van Berg states that Iran is building nuclear weapons in violation of the JCPOA as reported by the IAEA.
Oil-Shock Transmission Via Insurance, Contracts, And Policy Backstops
- Jonah Van Berg says the G7 signaled access to roughly 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumed afterward.
- Jonah Van Berg asserts that no boats were hit by missiles during this episode and that Iran's reduced air defenses limit its capacity to kinetically disrupt shipping.
- Jonah Van Berg claims the Strait of Hormuz disruption is mainly a financial/insurance closure rather than a kinetic closure, because insurers are unwilling to cover voyages and implied insurance cost can rival the oil price itself.
- Jonah Van Berg says FOB versus CIF terms determine whether the buyer or charterer bears shipping and insurance costs, but someone must pay and the cost can become prohibitive during war-risk events.
- Jonah Van Berg states that roughly 30% of global oil transits the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran often threatens to shut it during conflicts.
- Jonah Van Berg argues the United States could act as an insurer of last resort using Treasury resources to keep Hormuz transits economical and prevent a global economic shock.
Lifecycle-Conditional Tax Arbitrage Vs Quality-Of-Life Risk
- Avi Felman argues that for young people without families, living in Puerto Rico can be worth it because taxes are often the largest expense and savings can compound early in life.
- Avi Felman says he was T-boned in Puerto Rico and his Bronco was totaled, with injuries limited to a suspected broken pinky.
- Avi Felman says tax-haven living becomes less attractive once someone has children due to schooling and social-integration challenges and distance from strong institutions/opportunities.
- Jonah Van Berg argues many tax-haven locations are not worth living in relative to high-tax places due to quality-of-life and infrastructure risks.
Risk Expression: Instrument Choice And Asymmetric Blow-Up Paths
- Jonah Van Berg says he expressed a view to fade the war-driven oil spike by buying beaten-down stocks and Hyperliquid rather than shorting oil futures due to negative convexity and wipeout risk when short futures.
- Jonah Van Berg describes the episode as an extreme whipsaw where crude briefly spiked near $120 and then fell sharply.
- Jonah Van Berg suggests that shorting oil is attractive only if one can manage the risk of adverse war-driven price spikes.
Physical Oil Optionality And Microstructure: Why Reversals Can Be Violent
- Jonah Van Berg claims the physical oil market is structurally long optionality because control of tanks, pipelines, and ships creates operational flexibility that can be monetized by selling into spikes.
- Jonah Van Berg claims that in oil shocks, extreme high prices can self-limit because they pressure powerful actors to intervene and restore stability.
- Jonah Van Berg claims large firms cannot manipulate global crude outright but can influence smaller differential markets during benchmark pricing windows.
Unknowns
- What were the actual war-risk insurance premium changes (absolute and relative) for Gulf voyages during the described episode, and did they approach the magnitude implied?
- Were any commercial vessels actually struck, damaged, or rerouted due to missiles/mines during the episode, and what independent incident logs corroborate this?
- What specific G7 actions occurred regarding strategic petroleum reserves (actual releases vs statements), and on what timeline did Hormuz transits measurably resume?
- How large was the intraday crude move (precise highs/lows, contract month), and how did implied volatility and margins change around it?
- To what extent do physical players actually hedge/sell into geopolitical spikes in the way described, and what observable proxies confirm this (inventories, prompt spreads, reported hedging flows)?